Martingale

The martingale staking strategy falls into the progressive staking plan category. The strategy was originally designed for a simple coin toss game, with a 50/50 chance of either outcome, where the gambler would double the stake after every losing bet and returning to the starting stake after a win. Guaranteeing a one unit stake profit on each betting sequence.

Martingale staking then moved on to be implemented into casino betting systems, most notable on the roulette table. The player would continuously bet either black or red at evens (with the true value being slightly above evens) with the plan of doubling the bet after each lose. Theoretically this system is fool proof, but unfortunately the theory assumes the player has an unlimited amount of money at their disposal and in the real world this simple isnít realistic. On top of this, all casinos implement a maximum bet to stabilise their variance, shortening the number of bet iterations available to a user of this system. But even without this maximum bet casinos would happily encourage this system as they know unless a player is getting betting odds then the true value of the outcome no strategy or system can turn the odds against them. And we all know they only offer worse than true value odds.

Even though many casino going punters got stung using martingale staking that didnít stop it moving into the sports betting domain. The argument being that with sports, unlike cards and dice, the gambler can find value in the odds. With this in mind it does raise the appeal of this strategy, but, even with a huge edge a run of losers in inevitable and this can become very costly very quickly. Ten losers in a row makes the next bet 1024 times bigger than the first and this bet will only return one unit stake if successful.

So, should this strategy be used? In short, no. The biggest gambling myth is that an event that has not happened recently becomes overdue and more likely to occur, but in a true Ďrandom memory-lessí game this isnít the case. This notion is simply gamblerís fallacy and the event is as likely to happen as the last. So without a stop loss you are almost guaranteed to have a number of loses that will eliminate your betting bank. In the short term many gamblers have made good amounts of money using martingale staking, but sooner or later the natural variance will take its toll and leave you cursing your luck. But thereís no luck about it, itís just maths.

   
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